Last 3 games of 2011/12 - the control vs unpredictability dilemna again

The 2010/11 Premier League season is drawing to a close and Evertonians can look forward to visits from two of the top 4 to Goodison, sandwiching a trip to West Brom. First up are Man City who will be hoping for a win to secure their place in the Champions League for next season. Everton then have an opportunity to avenge the 4-1 defeat against West Brom earlier in the season before finally hosting Chelsea on the last day of the season. Depending on results in the meantime the Chelsea game could play a key role in deciding the destination of the league title. I can't stand meaningless final games of the season so really hope this one means something, it would be great to see Everton trampling on Roman's dreams!

Follow, follow, follow, follow: Mikky's back!

Everton's mid-season injury crisis finally seems to be easing and two of the 'big hitters', Cahill and Arteta, returned to the starting line-up against Wigan last week. Whilst allowing for the two players getting up to match speed the match at the DW Stadium was notable for returning to a pattern that has been evident for the majority of the season, but missing in recent weeks. Against Wigan, Everton mounted long periods of pressure on the Wigan goal, winning many corners but rarely actually creating clear cut chances. This pattern was only really broken during the injury crisis when the team were robbed of Arteta, Fellaini, Cahill and Rodwell.

I've talked about this problem all season. Essentially I think it's a dilemna between control and unpredictability. When we have Arteta in the side we have more control, his pass complettion stats show why, but building attacks in a controlled manner is not always a good thing. As we've seen time and again against the lower teams who put more emphasis on defence, it only leads to frustration. Whilst he was injured the players available meant that we played a slightly more direct game which seemed to allow us to dispatch the lower teams more easily, resulting in wins over Fulham, Wolves and Blackburn.

The good news is that the control that Arteta gives us is absolutely neccessary when playing against the top 6 teams. Without it you get performances like our recent one at Old Trafford, where we defend admirably but are subject to wave after wave of attack without being able to muster a clear cut chance of our own. The best little spaniard we know should be in the starting line-up against City today and with our recent records against them I really wouldn't be surprised if we got some kind of result from this. The same applies to the Chelsea game, it'll be the forth time we've played them this season and as yet we haven't lost so there should be some confidence amongst the players.

For next season, whilst buying a new striker will be seen by most as the biggest priority, I actually believe Moyes' most important task will be finding the right balance between control and unpredictability in each game. A one-size-fits-all approach to this doesn't work in the Premier League, so he needs to find a way to dial up and down the players personal style of play to suit the situation. I would say we need to improve the squad to do this, except we've shown we can play both ways this season with players we already have. It might be that Moyes needs to select his line-up to suit the oppo more often, rather than just choosing his best 11 but however he does it, if he can nail this, i reckon we'll have a much better season in 2011/12.

Unlocking the door to a parked bus

A particularly mixed metaphor it may be but Everton's inability to do this has pretty much been their problem all season and was once again last night in the 1-1 draw against Birmingham City.

The story has been the same week after week. Against pretty much everyone aside from the 'big six' Everton dominate possession and territory, sustain minute upon minute of pressure, clock up double-figures for corners and attacking free-kicks yet somehow fail to find the back of the net resulting in a draw or, after an error, a loss. Against any team that takes the game to us we play a high tempo pressing game without the ball, disrupting the opposition's rhythm and through interceptions high up the pitch or counter attacks find the space to create clear-cut chances and score goals. It's amazing how consistent the pattern has been. If I was a betting man i could've won a fortune this year. If those 'big six' teams had adopted the same approach as Birmingham et al our season could be even worse. I've no doubt that if Chelsea still had a coach as pragmatic as Mourinho in charge they would have sat back and picked us off on the break with ease, saving us a couple of extra cup games and leaving us a point worse off in the league.

Whilst I do think this is partly down to personnel, in particular the lack of pace in midfield and of a consistent goalscorer up front, I think it may have something to do with the system we play too.

Attacking movement: Life after Pienaar

For me, good attacking movement is the key to scoring goals in the Premier League. With teams so well prepared tactically, the ability of a player to create a yard of space to receive the ball or for team mates move into is crucial to creating goal scoring opportunities.

Quick players are more likely to appear to have good movement as their pace allows them to find space more easily. However, blistering speed is not essential in order for a player to have good movement. Steven Pienaar was a good example of this, whilst no slouch he is not exactly a pace merchant but his movement from the left side of midfield for Everton over the last few seasons has been crucial to the teams success. Until his recent departure it also played a huge part in the effectiveness of Leighton Baines this season. In the two most recent games without Pienaar in front of him Baines has looked a shadow of his former self.

In my opinion improving Everton's attacking movement is David Moyes' biggest challenge for the remainder of the season. This season must now be a write-off but if he can find a system and personel with the movement to hurt teams next year then it may not have all been in vain.