The story has been the same week after week. Against pretty much everyone aside from the 'big six' Everton dominate possession and territory, sustain minute upon minute of pressure, clock up double-figures for corners and attacking free-kicks yet somehow fail to find the back of the net resulting in a draw or, after an error, a loss. Against any team that takes the game to us we play a high tempo pressing game without the ball, disrupting the opposition's rhythm and through interceptions high up the pitch or counter attacks find the space to create clear-cut chances and score goals. It's amazing how consistent the pattern has been. If I was a betting man i could've won a fortune this year. If those 'big six' teams had adopted the same approach as Birmingham et al our season could be even worse. I've no doubt that if Chelsea still had a coach as pragmatic as Mourinho in charge they would have sat back and picked us off on the break with ease, saving us a couple of extra cup games and leaving us a point worse off in the league.Whilst I do think this is partly down to personnel, in particular the lack of pace in midfield and of a consistent goalscorer up front, I think it may have something to do with the system we play too.
After all, we haven't had a consistent goalscoring striker since Yakubu's first season in 2007-08 and have had a lack of pace in midfield for even longer. The absence of creative guile in central midfield also hasn't helped, with Arteta's poor form this season a big frustration, yet during Mikel's long spell out injured or when he primarily played wide we didn't seem to have such obvious problems.
For me, whilst our approach has gradually evolved under Moyes becoming more and more attacking with a greater emphasis on keeping possession the actual formation has remained as 4-4-1-1. People call it 4-5-1 or 4-4-2 but for me it's been 4-4-1-1 for years. I think we have become too predictable and Moyes needs to look at different ways of playing. He needs to be willing to innovate if he wants to retain his reputation as a forward-thinking coach. When we first started playing this way most teams still played 4-4-2 and as a result we could get a man over in midfield when we didn't have the ball. Now most teams play a formation that allows them to get five men in midfield (4-2-3-1, 4-3-2-1, 4-3-3) and as a result our formation no longer gives us a competitive advantage.
One problem Moyes faces with this is that there's no obvious, tried and tested formation that beats the 4-5-1 derivatives currently on show in the premier league. To my knowledge the only teams that have played variations on it (aside from 4-4-2) are Liverpool when they briefly dabbled with a 3-5-2 and Blackpool who have been playing a 4-3-3 that becomes a 3-4-3 when they are in possession. The common theme with both of these systems is that they allow the team to get an extra (7th) man high up the pitch when the team is attacking. Blackpool's ability to consistently score goals with players of inferior ability suggests that with some development their system could be the way for Moyes to go. In Baines and Coleman we certainly possess the full-backs to make it work. We would however need someone new to play the libero role and drop into the back 3 from midfield when both full-backs push on, as Busquets does for Barcelona and Adam has for Blackpool. They need to have long range passing ability to hit diagonal balls to attacking full-backs. I figure with better players it should be less suspect defensively but even so fans might have to put up with a few shocking results whilst we adapt.
This might just be the biggest challenge of Moyes' career so far. It's the difficult second album. Ripping it up and starting again but with all the heightened expectations of previous success. However, it's something the truly great managers do. If Moyes could too it would surely put him on course to join that category.
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